Between Trump, Xi, and Putin: How India’s Foreign Policy Gamble Could Reshape 2025
India’s balancing act on the world stage faces fresh scrutiny as Prime Minister Narendra Modi prepares for a crucial meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, even as ties with Washington cool and Moscow grows more influential in Delhi’s energy strategy.
For years, India has presented itself as a key player in a multipolar world: a partner of the US in the Indo-Pacific, a buyer of Russian oil, and a wary neighbour to China. But recent events highlight growing tensions in this strategy.
Former US President Donald Trump has turned from ally to critic, publicly rebuking Delhi over its discounted oil imports from Moscow and slapping higher tariffs on Indian goods. Analysts say this shift underscores the strain in US-India relations, despite Washington once being Delhi’s strongest advocate.
At the same time, India continues to deepen energy and diplomatic ties with Russia, ignoring Western pressure. Cheap Russian crude has become vital to India’s economy, and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s recent Moscow visit signalled Delhi’s unwillingness to abandon its long-standing partner.
Meanwhile, Beijing is sending mixed signals. After years of hostility following the deadly Galwan clashes in 2020, Chinese officials have recently called for partnership instead of rivalry. Modi’s planned meeting with Xi in Beijing is seen less as triumphal diplomacy and more as a pragmatic attempt to stabilise relations with a powerful neighbour.
Analysts argue that India’s current strategy is one of cautious hedging — engaging multiple powers without binding itself to one camp. Yet this approach is not without risks. India’s $4 trillion economy, though the world’s fifth largest, remains dwarfed by China’s $18 trillion and America’s $30 trillion. Its military capacity also lags, with heavy reliance on imported arms.
Experts warn that India may not be able to indefinitely balance Washington, Moscow, and Beijing. Some advocate for a “privileged partnership” with the US to counter China, while others insist India’s strength lies in maintaining autonomy.
For now, Delhi appears to be absorbing the blows — whether from Trump’s rebukes, China’s overtures, or Russia’s dependence on Indian markets. As one analyst put it: “India’s only real leverage may be patience — betting that the storm will pass and partners will return.
